Democrats

The winners:

• Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders basically tied the Iowa caucus. While the final result may be announced overnight (it’s time for me to go to bed), both candidates have claimed victory. When Bernie entered this race, nobody expected him to win anything. When Bernie started leading in New Hampshire, the Clinton campaign said he was a “one state wonder” and couldn’t compete anywhere else. This is probably a better night for Bernie than Hillary, but the actual victory is going to be decided by a hair.

The losers:

• Martin O’Malley didn’t even manage to snag an entire 1% in the Iowa vote (though to be fair, that isn’t percent of total votes, but rather delegates). He suspended his campaign and is done.

Republicans

The winners

• Ted Cruz managed to edge out expected victor Donald Trump to win the GOP Iowa caucus. Cruz gave an angsty speech decrying the “Washington establishment” and “the media.” His speech was literally a sermon, and he seems to be trying to underline his evangelical appeal as he turns to the south.
• Macro Rubio managed to surpass all expectations. He had a major surge into third place that was super surprising. Marco Rubio responded with a very feisty speech attacking the media and GOP establishment for doubting him, and viciously attacked Hillary Clinton over #benghazi.

The losers:

• Mike Huckabee conceded after being creamed. He won Iowa in 2008, so this had to have been v v disappointing for him.
• Donald Trump came in second, but he was the favorite to win. He gave a very gracious speech, roused his base, and expressed his interest in buying a farm (if anyone is selling?), but any Trump supporters have to acknowledge that the Iowa caucus was a huge disappointment.
• Ben Carson. He was actually leading in Iowa for ages, and now he finished in a distant fourth. He is now going back to Florida, not because he is skipping New Hampshire, but because he needs “fresh clothes.”
• Everyone else. Nobody stood out or exceeded expectations. For many of these candidates, New Hampshire is their very last bet.